Fun With Catcher WAR

Currently, FanGraphs’s version of catcher WAR uses a sum of RPP (runs saved or added by saving/allowing passed balls) and rSB (runs saved or added by catching/allowing basestealers) plus a positional adjustment to calculate the defensive part. Baseball-Reference uses DRS (which uses RPP and rSB), as they do with all other position players, to calculate the defensive part in their WAR. But neither of these include a key part of catcher defense: pitch framing.

I am of the opinion that pitch framing should absolutely be included in catcher WAR. It has shown to be a repeatable skill, and we have a fairly good way to calculate it. Lots of stuff has been done with itlots and lots and lots of stuff – and it’s now all the rage in the sabermetric world. (By the way, if you’re going to read any of those articles, I highly recommend the one linked from the word “with” – it’s a great explanation, albeit a little complicated, to how pitch-framing calculations work).

For now, though, neither FanGraphs nor Baseball-Reference uses pitch framing in WAR. Baseball Prospectus doesn’t use it in their WARP, either. There is good reason for this – it’s pretty new, and it could turn out that we’re doing something wrong calculating it. But I tend to think that all this extensive research that is very consistent with itself means that it’s probably pretty accurate. So I’m going to add pitch framing numbers to WAR (fWAR, to be exact), just to see what it’s like. I’ll add the runs each catcher has saved (or cost) his team by framing to their defense and re-do the WAR calculations. I took the catcher framing numbers from Statcorner, since theirs are more easily exportable than Baseball Prospectus’s.

This should be easy. After all, FanGraphs WAR is just batting runs plus baserunning runs plus defensive runs plus positional runs plus league runs plus replacement runs, all divided by the runs per win value, which was about 9.25 for 2013. So I just tacked on the framing runs for each catcher to their total runs and redivided by 9.25 to get their new WAR.

Name Runs saved with Framing fWAR WAR w/ Framing Difference
Yadier Molina 19.8 5.6 7.7 2.1
Jonathan Lucroy 31.1 3.6 7.0 3.4
Russell Martin 17.9 4.1 6.0 1.9
Buster Posey 11.4 4.7 6.0 1.3
Yan Gomes 15.4 3.7 5.3 1.6
Joe Mauer 0.4 5.2 5.2 0.0
Jason Castro -3.7 4.3 3.9 -0.4
Brian McCann 9.9 2.7 3.8 1.1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia -2.6 3.6 3.3 -0.3
Salvador Perez -4.9 3.7 3.2 -0.5
Chris Stewart 22.7 0.5 3.0 2.5
Hank Conger 18.1 1.0 3.0 2.0
Derek Norris 7.1 2.0 2.8 0.8
Carlos Santana -7.6 3.6 2.7 -0.9
Jose Molina 19.3 0.2 2.2 2.0
Wilson Ramos 3.7 1.8 2.2 0.4
David Ross 8.3 0.9 1.8 0.9
Yasmani Grandal 10.4 0.6 1.7 1.1
Evan Gattis 6.2 0.9 1.6 0.7
Nick Hundley -3.1 1.9 1.5 -0.4
Jose Lobaton 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.0
Welington Castillo -16.7 3.2 1.4 -1.8
A.J. Ellis -7.4 2.2 1.4 -0.8
Erik Kratz 6.7 0.7 1.4 0.7
Matt Wieters -9.1 2.4 1.4 -1.0
Dioner Navarro -3.7 1.7 1.3 -0.4
Rene Rivera 8.3 0.4 1.3 0.9
Geovany Soto 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.2
Alex Avila 5.6 0.6 1.2 0.6
J.P. Arencibia 15.8 -0.6 1.1 1.7
Francisco Cervelli 3.5 0.8 1.1 0.3
Ryan Hanigan 8.3 0.0 0.9 0.9
Carlos Corporan 2.7 0.4 0.7 0.3
Miguel Montero -1.4 0.9 0.7 -0.2
Martin Maldonado 10.4 -0.4 0.7 1.1
Carlos Ruiz -6.0 1.4 0.7 -0.7
John Jaso -6.1 1.2 0.5 -0.7
Brayan Pena 3.3 0.2 0.5 0.3
Stephen Vogt -0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0
A.J. Pierzynski -11.4 1.6 0.4 -1.2
Humberto Quintero -2.5 0.6 0.4 -0.2
Hector Gimenez 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.1
Tyler Flowers 3.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3
Tony Sanchez 2.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3
Mike Zunino 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.2
Hector Sanchez 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.2
Austin Romine 3.8 -0.2 0.2 0.4
Wilin Rosario -19.3 2.2 0.1 -2.1
Ryan Lavarnway -1.8 0.3 0.1 -0.2
Gerald Laird -8.2 0.9 0.0 -0.9
George Kottaras -6.1 0.7 0.0 -0.7
Travis d’Arnaud 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Wil Nieves -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Tony Cruz 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Anthony Recker -6.9 0.4 -0.3 -0.7
Chris Herrmann -4.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.5
Tim Federowicz -3.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.4
Guillermo Quiroz -2.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2
Kelly Shoppach -7.4 0.3 -0.5 -0.8
Jeff Mathis -1.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1
Yorvit Torrealba -5.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.6
Josh Thole -2.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2
Josh Phegley -2.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2
John Buck -20.4 1.4 -0.8 -2.2
Michael McKenry -4.8 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5
Jesus Montero -6.8 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8
Henry Blanco -7.6 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8
Kurt Suzuki -9.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0
Ryan Doumit -15.9 0.1 -1.6 -1.7
Rob Brantly -9.3 -0.8 -1.8 -1.0

Right away we see that this sends the WAR of some of the elite framers skyrocketing. Yadier Molina becomes more valuable than Miguel Cabrera due to the 2.1 wins that framing boosts him by, and Jonathan Lucroy becomes more valuable than Clayton Kershaw due to the ridiculous 3.4 wins that framing boosts him by (at least if you’re working with fWAR). Chris Stewart goes from barely above replacement level to a three-win player. Others, of course, see their value plummet. Wilin Rosario goes from average to replacement level by virtue of the 2.1 wins that framing costs him. Ryan Doumit goes from barely above replacement level to… well, really, really terrible.

A few things to bear in mind as you look at these numbers: the Statcorner numbers, which I used, are a little different from the Baseball Prospectus numbers. Obviously, I can’t know which are more accurate, and again, I only used the Statcorner ones because they were easier to export. Generally, though, the two data mostly agree with each other, so it’s not that big of an issue.

We also see the distribution of talent spread out a little bit, as it appears that the better catchers (generally speaking) see their WAR go up more often that it goes down, and the worse catchers usually see their WAR go down instead of up – thus implying that better catchers are also better framers. To verify the fact that the numbers are more spread out now, we can check the standard deviation of the two samples of WAR for these 70 catchers: the standard deviation of the regular fWAR is 1.6, while the standard deviation of the “enhanced” WAR is 2.0. As a parting thought, here is a graph showing fWAR against framing ability (the correlation is slight, with an r^2 of only 0.02 or so, but it is still there):

framing ability vs war

Pitcher Runs

Pitching statistics are mostly based on rates. Sure, we have innings pitched, and if you want to annoy me, you can talk about wins and losses, and of course there are the “three true outcomes” of strikeouts, walks, and home runs, plus WAR. But nobody ever looks at how many runs a pitcher was above or below average. Runs allowed isn’t all that common of a statistic; you’re more likely to see ERA or RA9. Even strikeouts and walks are often expressed as a percentage of all plate appearances, or as an amount per nine innings. The defense-independent ERA estimators like FIP and its spinoffs are rates, just like ERA. Where batters have regressed plus-minus or counting stats like wRAA and wRC, pitchers have nothing. There is my wRC for pitchers, but that’s presented as a rate stat too.

However, there has got to be some value in counting stats for pitchers. If we want to know how many more or fewer runs a team would allow by putting in an average pitcher instead of any given pitcher, that statistic would be able to tell us. So I’m going to present here three basic different numbers, one based off of FIP, one based off of straight runs allowed, and the third based off of linear weights. Each will be in two forms – raw runs allowed and runs allowed above or below average. I’ll call them FIP-Runs and FIP-Runs Above Average (FIPRAA), wRC-Runs and wRC-Runs Above Average (wRCRAA), and, obviously Runs and Runs Above Average (RAA). Kind of long, yeah, but I didn’t want to call the FIP one FRAA because that already exists.

All data was obtained from FanGraphs except for the singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, and HBP against used to calculate wRC; FanGraphs does not have some of those so I used Baseball-Reference.

FIP-Runs

This should be pretty simple. Take a pitcher’s FIP. FIP is scaled like ERA, but we want to scale it to RA9 because we want to scale it to all the runs a pitcher allows, not just the earned runs. To do this, multiply it by a constant that changes yearly – for 2013, it was 1.08. This is the league RA9 divided by the league ERA.

Take that figure, multiply it by the number of innings they pitched, and divide by nine to get the number of runs that FIP says a pitcher should have allowed. That’s their FIP-Runs. Great. But now how do we get that to express how many runs above average they were worth?

Well, we already have FIP-, which tells us how much better a pitcher’s FIP was than league average – and it’s already park- and league-adjusted, to boot. So what I did was divide each pitcher’s FIP-Runs by their FIP- divided by 100. That gave me the number of runs (adjusted to the park and league) that an average pitcher would give up in the same number of innings. Just subtract the pitcher’s FIP-Runs, and you have your FIPRAA. And while I was at it, I did the same thing for xFIP. As an example: Clayton Kershaw had a 2.39 FIP in 236 innings pitched with a 66 FIP-. 2.39 times 236 divided by 9 times 1.08 is about 67.7 FIP-runs. 67.7 divided by 0.66 (66/100) is about 102.5. So subtract 67.7 from 102.5 to get Kershaw’s FIPRAA, which is 34.9 (numbers are slightly different due to rounding).

You can find the numbers at the end of the article. But first, the next part:

Runs

I didn’t have to calculate these like I did with FIP-Runs because the numbers are already there – it’s just the total number of runs a pitcher allowed. I did, however, have to calculate RAA, for which I used the same method as I did with FIP-Runs: find the RA9- (this was not park- or league-adjusted because I calculated it myself), divide the number of runs each pitcher had allowed by it, and subtract runs allowed from that. Piece of cake. Now for the last, and hardest, part of this:

wRC-Runs

These were tricky. I had to calculate each pitcher’s wRC against by first finding their wOBA against with the raw number of singles, doubles, triples, etc. they gave up and converting that into wRC. But from there, I could follow the same instructions as before: use the wRC against as runs allowed, find the wRC/9- (if you didn’t read the article I linked to earlier, wRC/9 is just wRC against scaled like RA/9), and from those two find the wRCRAA (quite a mouthful, I know).

So, without further ado, here are the numbers sorted by innings pitched (if you can’t see the entire table, here):

Name Team IP FIP-Runs FIPRAA xFIP-Runs xFIPRAA wRC-Runs wRCRAA Runs RAA
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 241.2 74 31.7 81.2 28.5 57.8 51.2 83 29.2
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 236 67.7 34.9 81.6 25.8 32.9 73.5 55 54.6
James Shields Royals 228.2 95.2 15.5 102.1 6.5 40.5 62.6 82 24.2
R.A. Dickey Blue Jays 224.2 123.5 -14.2 114 -7.5 55.4 46 113 -8.7
Cliff Lee Phillies 222.2 75.4 26.5 74.3 26.1 69.9 30.6 77 26.4
Cole Hamels Phillies 220 86.1 14 90.8 9 76.2 23.1 94 8.2
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 219.2 90.7 13.5 86.5 17.7 69.6 29.5 69 33
Justin Verlander Tigers 218.1 85.9 20.2 96.2 8.4 72.8 25.7 94 7.4
Max Scherzer Tigers 214.1 70.5 33.2 81.3 20.3 66.4 30.3 73 26.5
Chris Sale White Sox 214.1 81.5 24.4 75.9 25.3 -0.4 97.1 81 18.5
Jeff Samardzija Cubs 213.2 96.7 3 88.5 7.7 4.8 91.6 109 -9.8
Jon Lester Red Sox 213.1 91.9 13.7 99.8 2 8.1 88.1 94 5.1
Jordan Zimmermann Nationals 213.1 86 10.6 89.1 7.7 8.1 88.1 81 18.1
Derek Holland Rangers 213 87.9 19.3 94.1 7.1 68.2 27.9 90 8.9
C.J. Wilson Angels 212.1 89.4 7.8 100.1 1 95.7 0.1 93 5.6
Jeremy Guthrie Royals 211.2 121.7 -19.4 115.6 -15.1 95.7 -0.2 99 -0.7
Ervin Santana Royals 211 99.5 3.1 93.4 7 96.2 -1 85 13
CC Sabathia Yankees 211 103.8 0 95.2 5 79.9 15.2 122 -24
Mat Latos Reds 210.2 78.4 18.4 90 4.7 12 83 82 15.8
Yu Darvish Rangers 209.2 82.5 23.3 71.5 27.8 24.5 70.1 68 29.4
Homer Bailey Reds 209 83 12.4 83.8 10.4 67.3 27 85 12.1
Doug Fister Tigers 208.2 81.6 19.1 85.6 13.9 24 70.1 91 5.9
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks 208.1 85.8 12.8 87 7.6 21.2 72.8 81 15.8
Chris Tillman Orioles 206.1 109.4 -8.1 96.1 2 21.9 71.1 87 8.8
Mike Minor Braves 204.2 82.8 9.2 89.4 2.8 12.6 79.7 79 16.1
Felix Hernandez Mariners 204.1 64 33 65.2 32.1 0.8 91.4 74 20.9
Eric Stults Padres 203.2 86.3 1.8 100.9 -9.2 9.4 82.5 97 -2.4
Mark Buehrle Blue Jays 203.2 100.2 -1 100 -2.9 53.3 38.6 100 -5.4
Wade Miley Diamondbacks 202.2 96.8 -1 91.7 0 69.1 22.4 88 6.1
Bronson Arroyo Reds 202 108.8 -16.6 96.2 -4.6 14.2 76.9 88 5.8
Lance Lynn Cardinals 201.2 79.4 8.8 88.6 2.7 89.2 1.7 92 1.7
Madison Bumgarner Giants 201.1 73.7 12 80.2 10.9 28.1 62.7 68 25.5
Hiroki Kuroda Yankees 201.1 86 11.7 87 8.6 46.8 44.1 79 14.5
Jose Quintana White Sox 200 91.7 6.9 92.6 2.9 8.5 81.7 83 9.9
Travis Wood Cubs 200 93.4 0 108 -18 66.5 23.7 73 19.9
A.J. Griffin Athletics 200 109.2 -16.7 100.3 -4.8 81.2 9 91 1.9
Ricky Nolasco - – - 199.1 79.9 8.9 85.6 4.5 52.3 37.6 90 2.6
Dillon Gee Mets 199 95.5 -9.5 97.2 -7.2 76.4 13.4 84 8.4
Kyle Lohse Brewers 198.2 97.3 -6.4 96.1 -6.3 17.5 72.1 78 14.3
Tim Lincecum Giants 197.2 88.7 -4.2 84.4 5.4 49.2 39.9 102 -10.2
Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 197.1 82.2 20.5 94 -4.5 79.8 9.2 82 9.7
Kris Medlen Braves 197 82.3 5.3 83.9 5.4 17.3 71.5 77 14.5
Jarrod Parker Athletics 197 104 -12.8 104.3 -10.3 17.2 71.6 92 -0.5
Gio Gonzalez Nationals 195.2 80.1 7.9 82.4 6.2 30.6 57.6 79 11.9
Justin Masterson Indians 193 77.6 10.6 77.1 14.7 75.4 11.6 75 14.6
Mike Leake Reds 192.1 93.2 -5.3 90.2 -3.5 77.2 9.5 78 11.3
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 192 74.6 8.3 79.7 6.9 14.5 72.1 67 22.2
A.J. Burnett Pirates 191 64.2 20.3 66.9 20 29.3 56.9 79 9.7
Bartolo Colon Athletics 190.1 73.8 14.1 90.2 0 40 45.8 60 28.4
John Lackey Red Sox 189.1 87.7 5.6 79.3 10.8 2.4 83 80 7.9
David Price Rays 186.2 67.9 17 73.2 16.1 13.3 70.9 78 8.7
Julio Teheran Braves 185.2 82.2 0.8 83.8 0 15.9 67.9 69 17.2
Andy Pettitte Yankees 185.1 82.3 8.1 86.3 1.8 69.6 14.1 85 1.1
Kevin Correia Twins 185.1 97.9 -9.7 94.3 -6.2 13.2 70.4 89 -2.9
Matt Cain Giants 184.1 86.9 -8.6 85.8 -2.5 58.9 24.3 85 0.6
Wily Peralta Brewers 183.1 94.6 -10.9 90.9 -8.3 30.4 52.3 107 -21.9
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 183 70.5 12.4 69.2 13.2 7.5 75.1 71 14
Joe Saunders Mariners 183 103.7 -16.5 92.9 -6.1 14.6 68 117 -32
Ubaldo Jimenez Indians 182.2 75.2 8.4 79.4 7.8 8 74.4 75 9.8
Anibal Sanchez Tigers 182 52.2 36.3 63.6 22.3 31.1 51 56 28.5
Kyle Kendrick Phillies 182 87.6 -5 90.6 -8.2 71.2 10.9 104 -19.5
Scott Feldman - – - 181.2 87.9 -0.9 86.3 -1.7 16 66 87 -2.6
Ian Kennedy - – - 181.1 99.9 -17.3 91.2 -9 23.9 57.9 108 -23.8
Yovani Gallardo Brewers 180.2 84.3 -1.7 81.1 0.8 17 64.5 92 -8.1
Matt Harvey Mets 178.1 42.8 35 56.3 24.1 83.6 -3.1 46 36.8
Zack Greinke Dodgers 177.2 68.9 7.7 73.6 7.3 90.4 -10.3 54 28.5
Rick Porcello Tigers 177 75 11.2 67.8 15.9 12.4 67.5 87 -4.8
Bud Norris - – - 176.2 81.8 2.5 89.5 -5.1 6.2 73.5 89 -6.9
Edwin Jackson Cubs 175.1 79.7 2.5 81.2 -1.6 69.1 9.9 110 -28.6
Andrew Cashner Padres 175 70.4 5.3 76 3.2 7 72 68 13.3
Jeremy Hellickson Rays 174 88.1 -9.4 86.7 -4.1 50.7 27.8 103 -22.2
Shelby Miller Cardinals 173.1 76.3 -0.8 77.6 0.8 16.5 61.7 65 15.5
Jose Fernandez Marlins 172.2 56.6 22 63.8 14 79.5 -1.6 47 33.2
Miguel Gonzalez Orioles 171.1 91.5 -7.6 88.6 -7.3 69.4 7.9 81 -1.4
Ryan Dempster Red Sox 171.1 96.2 -11.1 86.6 -4.9 8.3 69 97 -17.4
Edinson Volquez - – - 170.1 86.7 -13.2 83.2 -6.2 12 64.8 114 -34.9
Dan Haren Nationals 169.2 83.3 -6.9 74.7 2.3 89 -12.5 92 -13.2
Jerome Williams Angels 169.1 93.5 -16.2 86.2 -5.6 20.3 56.1 93 -14.4
Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 167.2 75.7 11.3 82.1 -6.1 77.8 -2.2 70 7.9
Jeff Locke Pirates 166.1 80.4 -7.3 83.6 -8.3 9.5 65.5 69 8.3
Felix Doubront Red Sox 162.1 73.6 6.4 80.6 -3.1 18.1 55.2 84 -8.6
Francisco Liriano Pirates 161 56.4 14.1 60.3 12.3 11.8 60.8 54 20.8
Scott Kazmir Indians 158 66.5 5.8 63.7 11.2 92.7 -21.4 76 -2.6
Juan Nicasio Rockies 157.2 80.4 1.6 81.7 -10.7 33.1 38 97 -23.8
Tommy Milone Athletics 156.1 80.7 -8.6 77.9 -3.7 23.1 47.4 83 -10.4
Matt Garza - – - 155.1 72.3 3.8 69.5 2.9 60.8 9.3 73 -0.9
Jered Weaver Angels 154.1 70.7 -0.7 79.8 -6.6 24.4 45.3 58 13.7
Dallas Keuchel Astros 153.2 78.4 -5.8 66 7.3 26.9 42.4 96 -24.6
Lucas Harrell Astros 153.2 99.9 -27.5 91.6 -18.3 35.5 33.8 111 -39.6
Paul Maholm Braves 153 77.8 -9.6 71.4 -2.1 31.3 37.7 82 -10.9
Mike Pelfrey Twins 152.2 73.1 -0.7 83.2 -10.2 19.8 49 92 -21.1
Dan Straily Athletics 152.1 74 -3.5 80.8 -8 15.6 53.1 74 -3.2
Erik Bedard Astros 151 79.4 -7.9 83.5 -11.5 15.8 52.3 83 -12.9
Roberto Hernandez Rays 151 83.9 -15.7 65.2 6.5 49.1 19 87 -16.9
Matt Moore Rays 150.1 71.3 -3.4 77.9 -6.4 37.3 30.5 58 11.8
Jason Vargas Angels 150 73.6 -5.5 77.2 -5.7 13.9 53.7 68 1.7
Hector Santiago White Sox 149 79.4 -5.9 83.1 -12.1 14.5 52.7 69 0.2
Corey Kluber Indians 147.1 58.3 8.7 54.8 15.5 3.7 62.8 67 1.4
Trevor Cahill Diamondbacks 146.2 75 -6.2 72.3 -6 5.1 61.1 70 -1.9
Phil Hughes Yankees 145.2 78.7 -7.2 76.7 -7.6 18.7 47.1 91 -23.3
Garrett Richards Angels 145 63.7 2.7 62.3 6.9 26.2 39.2 73 -5.7
Jake Peavy - – - 144.2 68.7 2.9 70 -1.4 13 52.3 70 -2.8
Alex Cobb Rays 143.1 57.8 7.1 51.9 16.4 27.7 37 46 20.6
Aaron Harang - – - 143.1 82.4 -15.4 75.3 -7.5 -1.1 65.7 91 -24.4
Jon Niese Mets 143 61.4 0.6 65.9 -1.3 21.6 42.9 68 -1.6
Tom Koehler Marlins 143 73.3 -8.4 73.4 -9 81.9 -17.4 72 -5.6
Jordan Lyles Astros 141.2 77.7 -10.7 75 -7.4 3.6 60.3 98 -32.2
Ivan Nova Yankees 139.1 58 10.2 61.5 4.6 -0.1 63 49 15.7
Jason Hammel Orioles 139.1 82.4 -14.3 76.2 -9.9 24.7 38.2 81 -16.3
John Danks White Sox 138.1 84 -15.7 67.7 -2 40.4 22 81 -16.8
Esmil Rogers Blue Jays 137.2 78.1 -11.4 67.1 -1.3 36.2 25.9 76 -12.1
Wei-Yin Chen Orioles 137 66.4 0.7 68.1 -2.6 17.2 44.6 62 1.6
Wade Davis Royals 135.1 67.9 -2 67.4 -3.2 20 41.1 89 -26.1
Brandon McCarthy Diamondbacks 135 60.8 3.2 61.1 0 17.9 43 71 -8.3
Zach McAllister Indians 134.1 65 -3.7 73 -9 77.8 -17.2 65 -2.6
Barry Zito Giants 133.1 78.7 -22.1 77 -16.8 15.8 44.4 94 -32.1
Joe Blanton Angels 132.2 81.5 -21.1 61.1 1.9 75.2 -15.4 96 -34.4
Tim Hudson Braves 131.1 54.5 4.1 56.1 3 20.3 39 60 1
Scott Diamond Twins 131 81.6 -19.3 74 -11.8 4.8 54.3 88 -27.2
Jeremy Hefner Mets 130.2 70.4 -14.1 63.5 -4.7 18.7 40.3 75 -14.3
Carlos Villanueva Cubs 128.2 59.6 0.6 61.3 -2.9 25.7 32.4 58 1.8
Chris Archer Rays 128.2 62.8 -4.7 60.4 0.6 -0.4 58.5 49 10.8
Dylan Axelrod White Sox 128.1 83.8 -20.3 75.6 -14.6 13.3 44.6 89 -29.4
Marco Estrada Brewers 128 59.3 -0.6 55.8 2.3 78.9 -21.2 56 3.4
Tyson Ross Padres 125 48 5.9 51.5 5.1 17.6 38.7 51 7.1
Martin Perez Rangers 124.1 63.1 -0.6 60.3 -1.2 58.2 -2.2 55 2.7
Joe Kelly Cardinals 124 59.7 -5.4 62.3 -6.2 85.4 -29.5 42 15.6
Bruce Chen Royals 121 59.8 -1.2 71.6 -13.9 27.1 27.5 46 10.2
Jacob Turner Marlins 118 62.7 -9.1 66.7 -13.3 30.5 22.7 55 -0.2
Jason Marquis Padres 117.2 79.8 -29.3 67.9 -14.9 17.2 35.9 55 -5.7
Gerrit Cole Pirates 117.1 41 10.9 44.2 9.1 19.7 33.2 43 11.5
Jake Westbrook Cardinals 116.2 64.7 -13.8 69.3 -16.8 89.2 -36.5 69 -14.8
Randall Delgado Diamondbacks 116.1 69.7 -14.8 55 -2.6 83.2 -30.7 59 -5
Charlie Morton Pirates 116 50.1 1 51.4 1 25.7 26.7 51 2.9
Tyler Chatwood Rockies 111.1 48.9 8.6 53.4 -3 7.8 42.4 44 7.7
Clay Buchholz Red Sox 108.1 36.1 17 44.3 7.2 23.8 25.1 23 27.3
Samuel Deduno Twins 108 52.4 -1 52.6 -1 25.6 23.1 48 2.2
Nathan Eovaldi Marlins 106.1 45.8 2.4 53 -4.8 18.5 29.4 44 5.4
Chris Capuano Dodgers 105.2 45 0.5 46.5 1.4 22.1 25.5 57 -7.9
Tony Cingrani Reds 104.2 47.5 0.5 43.8 3.3 18.4 28.8 37 11.6
Alexi Ogando Rangers 104.1 54.6 -2.1 58.1 -8.4 6.7 40.3 38 10.5
Ryan Vogelsong Giants 103.2 61.1 -17.1 56 -9.3 23.1 23.6 73 -24.9
Henderson Alvarez Marlins 102.2 39.2 7.5 48.9 -2.3 2.8 43.5 42 5.7
Jonathan Pettibone Phillies 100.1 50.3 -4.6 51.8 -6.4 14.5 30.8 50 -3.4
Zack Wheeler Mets 100 50 -6.9 50.5 -5.4 47.6 -2.5 42 4.4
Justin Grimm - – - 98 54 -4.5 49.6 -3.2 14.9 29.3 70 -24.5
Chad Gaudin Giants 97 38.9 2.5 46.6 -2.6 19 24.7 34 11.1
Anthony Swarzak Twins 96 37.8 7.7 43.9 1.8 12.2 31.1 33 11.6
Luis Mendoza Royals 94 53.6 -7.8 53.4 -8.5 6.3 36.1 60 -16.3
Nick Tepesch Rangers 93 46.8 0 42.6 1.8 10.2 31.7 53 -9.8
J.A. Happ Blue Jays 92.2 47.9 -2.7 53.6 -9.3 17.3 24.5 53 -10
Josh Collmenter Diamondbacks 92 38.3 5.2 44.8 -3.3 20.4 21.1 34 8.7
Kevin Slowey Marlins 92 42.1 -0.4 44.3 -2.9 67.9 -26.4 44 -1.3
Brandon Maurer Mariners 90 52.9 -10.2 45.9 -3 106.3 -65.7 66 -24.2
Alfredo Simon Reds 87.2 41.7 -1.6 44.4 -4.8 13.4 26.1 31 9.7
David Phelps Yankees 86.2 39.6 2.5 41.9 -0.8 18.9 20.2 50 -9.7
Tommy Hunter Orioles 86.1 38.1 4.2 37.6 3.3 19 20 28 12.1
Carlos Torres Mets 86.1 44.5 -7.1 36.3 2.7 21.1 17.8 34 6.1
Tom Gorzelanny Brewers 85.1 40.3 -1.2 37.3 1.2 9.1 29.3 41 -1.4
Brad Peacock Astros 83.1 49.8 -10.6 44.4 -4.8 18.1 19.5 51 -12.3
Craig Stammen Nationals 81.2 27.6 9.2 30.2 6.6 3.8 33 30 7.9
Josh Johnson Blue Jays 81.1 45.1 -5.5 34.9 3.9 2.4 34.3 64 -26.2
Jeanmar Gomez Pirates 80.2 37.3 -1.8 38.2 -1.8 19.5 16.9 35 2.5
Ryan Webb Marlins 80.1 34.7 1.8 36.5 -0.4 22.4 13.9 30 7.3
Freddy Garcia - – - 80.1 52.9 -14.3 38.6 -0.8 7.5 28.8 40 -2.7
A.J. Ramos Marlins 80 31.1 5.5 39.1 -2.9 23.8 12.3 32 5.2
Adam Ottavino Rockies 78.1 29.6 11 33.3 2.1 68.9 -33.5 27 9.4
Shaun Marcum Mets 78.1 34.2 -0.3 39.7 -4.3 8.3 27 48 -11.6
Nate Jones White Sox 78 24.7 13.9 25.9 11.1 79.9 -44.7 40 -3.8
Alex Wood Braves 77.2 24.7 10.1 29.6 5.6 9 26 29 7.1
Brandon Kintzler Brewers 77 23.5 12.1 27.1 7.6 3.2 31.6 26 9.8
Adam Warren Yankees 77 39.9 -2.3 36.8 0 6.2 28.5 29 6.8
Todd Redmond Blue Jays 77 40.7 -3.4 38.4 -1.8 21.1 13.6 38 -2.2
Kenley Jansen Dodgers 76.2 18.3 15 19 16.1 14.6 20 16 19.6
Tanner Scheppers Rangers 76.2 34.4 4.3 35.7 0.7 31.8 2.7 21 14.6
Ryan Pressly Twins 76.2 33.8 2.5 39.5 -2.9 25 9.6 37 -1.4
Drew Smyly Tigers 76 21.1 15.9 27.3 8.6 14.5 19.8 20 15.3
Trevor Rosenthal Cardinals 75.1 17.3 15.9 21.2 13 24.3 9.7 25 10
Wilton Lopez Rockies 75.1 32.3 7.1 33.4 0.7 0.2 33.8 35 0
Jake Arrieta - – - 75.1 43.8 -7.9 41.7 -6.9 20.7 13.3 41 -6
Bryan Shaw Indians 75 27.6 6.5 32.2 3.6 8.9 25 31 3.8
T.J. McFarland Orioles 74.2 34.4 2.2 33 2.5 8.9 24.7 37 -2.3
Koji Uehara Red Sox 74.1 14.4 22.5 18.6 16.5 11.5 22.1 10 24.5
John Lannan Phillies 74.1 39 -5.1 42 -8.4 61.8 -28.3 48 -13.5
Alfredo Figaro Brewers 74 43.2 -9.5 32.3 1 1.7 31.7 41 -6.6
Vin Mazzaro Pirates 73.2 29.3 3.3 35.4 -2 19.7 13.5 23 11.2
Justin Wilson Pirates 73.2 30.1 2.3 33.8 -0.3 30.4 2.8 17 17.2
Anthony Varvaro Braves 73.1 30.5 2.3 36.9 -3.7 -0.4 33.5 25 9.1
Paul Clemens Astros 73.1 50.1 -15.5 44.6 -9.8 5.7 27.4 48 -13.9
Matt Belisle Rockies 73 26.5 11.4 26.2 7 101.3 -68.3 37 -3.1
Brad Ziegler Diamondbacks 73 29.8 4.5 29.1 4 45.7 -12.8 20 13.9
Tommy Hanson Angels 73 40.7 -7.3 42.3 -7.6 3 29.9 47 -13.1
Dane de la Rosa Angels 72.1 26 6.9 30.3 4.1 34.2 -1.6 25 8.6
Erasmo Ramirez Mariners 72.1 41.9 -7.6 37 -2.4 95.6 -63 44 -10.4
Tony Watson Pirates 71.2 27.5 4.1 32 0.3 42.8 -10.5 19 14.3
Brett Oberholtzer Astros 71.2 31.4 2.4 36.7 -2.7 2.2 30.2 26 7.3
Addison Reed White Sox 71.1 27.1 8.1 32.3 1.7 26 6.2 31 2.1
Joel Peralta Rays 71.1 31.5 0.6 36.5 -2.4 4.2 28 31 2.1
Ross Detwiler Nationals 71.1 31.3 0.6 36.4 -4.2 25.8 6.4 37 -3.9
Mark Melancon Pirates 71 14 17.8 17.5 14.9 22.2 9.9 15 18
Tyler Clippard Nationals 71 32.5 -0.6 34.3 -2.2 20.3 11.8 19 14
LaTroy Hawkins Mets 70.2 25.9 4.6 26.5 5.4 16.9 15 27 5.8
Luke Hochevar Royals 70.1 25 8.8 24.5 9.1 -0.6 32.3 15 17.7
Cody Allen Indians 70.1 25.2 6.7 27.6 5.7 24.5 7.2 22 10.7
Jim Johnson Orioles 70.1 29.1 5.1 28.5 5 -0.3 32 26 6.7
Jeff Francis Rockies 70.1 38.3 -1.8 32.2 -0.3 17.9 13.9 54 -21.3
Jamey Wright Rays 70 26.3 5.4 29.2 4 17.3 14.3 25 7.5
Steve Cishek Marlins 69.2 21.1 10.9 24.9 6.6 36.6 -5.2 19 13.4
Tim Stauffer Padres 69.2 29.7 0.3 26.8 4.7 0.4 31 29 3.4
Aaron Loup Blue Jays 69.1 27.6 6.1 27.5 5.2 10.1 21.2 23 9.2
Sean Doolittle Athletics 69 22.4 9.2 30.5 2.3 18.2 12.9 24 8
Ernesto Frieri Angels 68.2 30.7 0.6 28.8 3.9 -0.9 31.9 29 2.9
Junichi Tazawa Red Sox 68.1 26.4 7.4 24.8 7.4 9.7 21.1 25 6.7
Donovan Hand Brewers 68.1 41.1 -9.7 37.5 -6.5 13.2 17.7 29 2.7
Yoervis Medina Mariners 68 31.5 0.6 31.4 1 45 -14.3 22 9.6
Ronald Belisario Dodgers 68 29.7 -0.3 31.3 -0.6 20.9 9.8 34 -2.4
Jon Garland Rockies 68 40.2 -4.9 37 -6.4 28.9 1.8 45 -13.4
Mike Dunn Marlins 67.2 25.3 5.6 30 0.6 18.3 12.2 21 10.4
Ryan Cook Athletics 67.1 22.1 9 30 1.9 19.4 10.9 22 9.3
Rex Brothers Rockies 67.1 27.1 7.7 28.2 2.1 93.3 -62.9 16 15.3
Cesar Ramos Rays 67.1 29.9 0.6 32.5 -0.3 6.8 23.6 31 0.3
Greg Holland Royals 67 10.9 21.2 13.5 17.9 80.2 -50 11 20.1
Craig Kimbrel Braves 67 15.5 14.3 15.7 15.1 88.9 -58.7 10 21.1
Joaquin Benoit Tigers 67 23.1 9.4 25.4 6.4 23.8 6.5 15 16.1
Fernando Rodney Rays 66.2 22.7 7.6 24.9 6.6 23.7 6.4 27 4
Tyler Thornburg Brewers 66.2 24.9 5.8 35.4 -5.4 22.2 7.8 17 14
Rafael Soriano Nationals 66.2 29.2 0.9 32.4 -2.1 5.2 24.9 24 7
David Robertson Yankees 66.1 20.8 11.7 20.7 10.7 13.6 16.3 15 15.8
Luke Gregerson Padres 66.1 21.5 7.2 26.8 3.3 -0.6 30.5 24 6.8
Chris Rusin Cubs 66.1 37.8 -6.8 35.5 -5.7 -0.6 30.6 30 0.8
Jared Burton Twins 66 28.6 2.8 31.2 0.3 11.3 18.5 29 1.7
J.J. Hoover Reds 66 27.5 2.7 31.4 -1.5 6.2 23.6 21 9.7
David Carpenter Braves 65.2 22.3 7 24.5 5 17.2 12.5 13 17.5
Heath Bell Diamondbacks 65.2 32.3 -1.2 24.3 5.3 12.6 17 30 0.5
Charlie Furbush Mariners 65 23.9 6.7 26.3 4.6 1 28.3 33 -2.8
Luis Avilan Braves 65 25.6 3.5 31.4 -2.1 25.1 4.3 12 18.2
Dale Thayer Padres 65 29.6 -1.7 27.7 1.8 5.7 23.6 25 5.2
John Axford - – - 65 33.9 -4.2 27.8 1.8 10.9 18.4 32 -1.8
Bryan Morris Pirates 65 38.1 -9.7 33.9 -4.4 54.4 -25.1 25 5.2
Joe Nathan Rangers 64.2 17.5 14.9 25.4 5.2 1.2 28 10 20
Michael Wacha Cardinals 64.2 22.7 5.7 26.1 3.2 3.6 25.6 20 10
Edward Mujica Cardinals 64.2 28.8 -0.6 27.4 1.7 14.1 15.1 20 10
Sonny Gray Athletics 64 20.7 8.9 22.4 7.9 5.2 23.7 22 7.7
Mariano Rivera Yankees 64 23.4 7.8 23.7 6.7 8.8 20.1 16 13.7
Aroldis Chapman Reds 63.2 18.9 10.6 15.8 12.9 29.2 -0.4 18 11.6
Matt Albers Indians 63 26.4 2.3 28.9 1.2 2.8 25.6 25 4.3
Joe Smith Indians 63 27.2 1.7 28 2.1 9.3 19.1 17 12.3
Glen Perkins Twins 62.2 18.7 11 19.6 10.1 50.6 -22.4 16 13.1
Jose Veras - – - 62.2 27.2 2.7 29.7 0 6.1 22.2 23 6.1
Grant Balfour Athletics 62.2 26.2 2.6 25.7 4.2 -0.1 28.4 20 9.1
Jake McGee Rays 62.2 25.6 2.5 23.4 6.6 25.3 3 28 1.1
Wandy Rodriguez Pirates 62.2 33.2 -5.8 30.1 -1.7 1.8 26.4 26 3.1
Robbie Ross Rangers 62.1 23.8 7.5 25.4 4.1 20.7 7.4 21 8
Burke Badenhop Brewers 62.1 26.4 2.3 25.4 2.8 12.3 15.9 32 -3
David Hernandez Diamondbacks 62.1 32.6 -3.2 29.8 -1.7 60.2 -32.1 33 -4
Casey Fien Twins 62 23.5 5.9 20.2 9.5 77.6 -49.7 28 0.8
J.P. Howell Dodgers 62 21.5 5.4 25.9 2.3 3.4 24.6 15 13.8
Darren O’Day Orioles 62 26.6 3.6 26.7 2.6 20.3 7.7 16 12.8
Chad Qualls Marlins 62 24.7 3.4 24.2 3.9 5.1 22.9 18 10.8
Seth Maness Cardinals 62 25.5 1.6 23.3 4.8 69.4 -41.4 17 11.8
Kevin Gregg Cubs 62 30.5 -1.5 32.6 -4.5 9.3 18.7 26 2.8
Josh Roenicke Twins 62 34.5 -5 39.4 -10 22.6 5.3 31 -2.2
Roy Halladay Phillies 62 45.7 -17.7 37.9 -10 42.9 -14.9 48 -19.2
Jonathan Papelbon Phillies 61.2 22.6 5.6 26 2 29.1 -1.3 23 5.6
Drew Storen Nationals 61.2 26.8 1.1 27.5 0.3 97.6 -69.8 34 -5.4
Sam LeCure Reds 61 21.7 6.1 24.3 3.3 25.8 1.7 18 10.3
Brian Duensing Twins 61 23.7 5.2 27.2 1.7 10.3 17.2 28 0.3
Brett Cecil Blue Jays 60.2 21 8.6 21.8 6.9 10 17.4 20 8.2
Matt Lindstrom White Sox 60.2 22.9 6.8 28.2 0.6 55.6 -28.2 23 5.2
Johnny Cueto Reds 60.2 27.7 0 23.5 3.8 13.5 13.9 20 8.2
Sergio Romo Giants 60.1 20.6 5.2 23.2 4.1 9.3 17.9 20 8
Ross Ohlendorf Nationals 60.1 29.2 -1.9 28.7 -1.4 6.4 20.9 22 6
Tyler Cloyd Phillies 60.1 32.5 -5.2 34.5 -7.3 14 13.2 45 -17
Jim Henderson Brewers 60 25.8 1.6 23.8 3.2 2.3 24.8 18 9.9
Andrew Albers Twins 60 28.5 0 31.8 -3.2 13.7 13.4 34 -6.1
Jerry Blevins Athletics 60 27.9 -0.3 30.6 -2 0.4 26.6 23 4.9
Jarred Cosart Astros 60 31.3 -3.1 33.7 -5.1 36.4 -9.3 15 12.9
Craig Breslow Red Sox 59.2 25.8 3.9 31.3 -2.8 25.3 1.6 16 11.7
Tom Wilhelmsen Mariners 59 26.1 2 32.4 -4.2 55.4 -28.8 28 -0.6
Carter Capps Mariners 59 33.5 -5.3 25.2 2.8 2 24.6 37 -9.6
Steve Delabar Blue Jays 58.2 19.1 9.4 23.6 4.2 2 24.5 25 2.2
Kelvin Herrera Royals 58.1 25.9 2.3 20 7.8 26.1 0.2 27 0.1
Stephen Fife Dodgers 58.1 30.5 -5.3 27.2 -0.8 21.3 5 28 -0.9
Alex Torres Rays 58 16.1 9.9 23 4.7 0.5 25.7 12 14.9
Jesse Chavez Athletics 57.1 20.7 5.8 26.4 0.8 -0.5 26.4 27 -0.4
Pedro Strop - – - 57.1 24.4 3.3 22.7 4 -0.4 26.3 30 -3.4
Neal Cotts Rangers 57 14.8 13.7 19.3 7.9 18.5 7.2 8 18.5
Huston Street Padres 56.2 33.5 -9 27.2 -1.5 24.3 1.3 17 9.3
Pedro Hernandez Twins 56.2 37.7 -10.8 35.2 -8.1 16.6 8.9 43 -16.7
Troy Patton Orioles 56 29.7 -2.2 27.6 -0.8 8 17.2 25 1
Andre Rienzo White Sox 56 39.3 -11.6 32 -5.3 13.1 12.2 34 -8
Danny Farquhar Mariners 55.2 12.4 14 16 10.2 9.4 15.8 29 -3.1
Juan Gutierrez - – - 55.1 24.8 1.3 27.2 -0.8 -0.1 25.1 29 -3.3
Jaime Garcia Cardinals 55.1 24.7 -0.5 21.7 3.2 2.1 22.8 26 -0.3
George Kontos Giants 55.1 27.1 -3.5 26.3 -1.3 4.7 20.3 30 -4.3
Alex Sanabia Marlins 55.1 38.8 -13.8 35.2 -10.2 7.5 17.5 33 -7.3
Logan Ondrusek Reds 55 26 -0.8 22.7 2.2 11.5 13.3 26 -0.5
Wade LeBlanc - – - 55 31.4 -6.3 33.1 -8 93.4 -68.6 40 -14.5
Jeremy Bonderman - – - 55 33.8 -7.4 34.1 -7.9 10 14.8 36 -10.5
Robbie Erlin Padres 54.2 25.1 -1.6 26.1 -1.5 6.8 17.9 26 -0.6
Hector Rondon Cubs 54.2 28.9 -3.3 29 -4.4 0.3 24.4 29 -3.6
Philip Humber Astros 54.2 32.9 -7.2 30.2 -4.2 8.5 16.1 48 -22.6
Paco Rodriguez Dodgers 54.1 20.1 3.3 19 5.7 -0.1 24.6 15 10.2
Brandon League Dodgers 54.1 32.1 -8.7 26.5 -2 3.3 21.3 37 -11.8
Brandon Morrow Blue Jays 54.1 35.3 -9 29.3 -3.4 2.4 22.1 39 -13.8
Josh Outman Rockies 54 21.1 7 23.5 1 18.5 5.8 27 -1.9
Chris Perez Indians 54 32.9 -8.2 24.8 0.8 1 23.4 27 -1.9
Tanner Roark Nationals 53.2 15.5 8.7 20.2 4.1 70.2 -46 11 13.9
Wesley Wright - – - 53.2 25.2 -0.2 21.4 4.1 23.2 1 24 0.9
Tim Collins Royals 53.1 21.8 4.1 27.5 -2 25.2 -1.1 26 -1.2
Shawn Kelley Yankees 53.1 23.2 2.9 20.7 4.6 48.9 -24.8 28 -3.2
Jean Machi Giants 53 14.6 8.2 17.7 6.2 111 -87.1 15 9.6
Oliver Perez Mariners 53 20.7 4.6 21.4 3.8 27.1 -3.2 23 1.6
Tyler Lyons Cardinals 53 23.7 -0.5 24.4 -0.5 19 4.9 29 -4.4
Michael Kohn Angels 53 29 -4.8 31.2 -5.8 8.7 15.2 22 2.6
Casey Janssen Blue Jays 52.2 17.3 8.1 19.5 5.5 3 20.8 17 7.5
Will Harris Diamondbacks 52.2 17.3 7.4 19.7 4 0.3 23.5 17 7.5
James Russell Cubs 52.2 28.1 -3.5 30.1 -6.4 2.5 21.2 21 3.5
Clayton Richard Padres 52.2 41.3 -18.7 29.5 -5.7 8.6 15.1 44 -19.5
Danny Salazar Indians 52 19.7 4 17.2 7.4 13.3 10.1 18 6.2
Taylor Jordan Nationals 51.2 21.6 1.6 23.6 -0.2 3.5 19.8 27 -3
Brian Matusz Orioles 51 17.8 7.3 22 2.2 5 18 21 2.7
Scott Rice Mets 51 20.8 1.3 23.4 -0.2 8.9 14.1 22 1.7
Kyle Gibson Twins 51 31.6 -7.3 29.2 -4.9 0.1 22.9 38 -14.3
Preston Claiborne Yankees 50.1 25 -0.5 23.4 0.5 1.2 21.5 23 0.4
Travis Blackley - – - 50.1 35.8 -11.8 25.4 -1.4 28.3 -5.6 27 -3.6
Jason Grilli Pirates 50 11.8 10.5 13.3 9.6 5.2 17.3 15 8.2
Bobby Parnell Mets 50 14 7.9 18.3 4.3 2.1 20.4 17 6.2
Santiago Casilla Giants 50 22 -0.8 25.4 -2.9 92.8 -70.2 14 9.2
Michael Gonzalez Brewers 50 29.2 -6.4 23.3 -0.7 29.8 -7.2 28 -4.8
Jason Frasor Rangers 49 19.8 5 21.3 2.1 24.4 -2.3 15 7.8
Jose Mijares Giants 49 17.9 2.9 22.9 -0.9 38.6 -16.5 24 -1.2
Al Alburquerque Tigers 49 21.9 1.9 20.5 2.8 4.5 17.6 25 -2.2
Darren Oliver Blue Jays 49 23.8 0 22 1.4 1 21.1 24 -1.2
Carlos Marmol - – - 49 30.5 -8.2 26.6 -4.6 20.1 2 26 -3.2
Vance Worley Twins 48.2 32.3 -9.2 27.8 -4.6 1.5 20.4 43 -20.4
Yusmeiro Petit Giants 48 16.5 3.9 20 1.7 127.3 -105.7 19 3.3
Aaron Crow Royals 48 25 -1.6 22.7 0.2 18.8 2.8 19 3.3
Kevin Gausman Orioles 47.2 22.8 0.5 17.4 5.2 0.2 21.3 30 -7.9
Ross Wolf Rangers 47.2 26 -1.9 25.3 -2.7 20.2 1.3 24 -1.9
Liam Hendriks Twins 47.1 30.9 -8.3 27.1 -4.5 21.1 0.2 39 -17
Jordan Walden Braves 47 15.8 5 19.8 1.5 53.2 -32 19 2.8
Francisco Rodriguez - – - 46.2 20.4 1.8 17 4.3 18.7 2.4 14 7.7
Justin De Fratus Phillies 46.2 22.5 -1.3 24.4 -3.4 3.9 17.1 21 0.7
Carlos Carrasco Indians 46.2 23 -1.5 24.2 -2 25 -4 36 -14.3
Nick Vincent Padres 46.1 11.5 8.6 16.1 4.8 58.6 -37.7 11 10.5
Blake Parker Cubs 46.1 16.1 5.7 19.7 1.3 22.5 -1.6 17 4.5
Manny Parra Reds 46 16.9 4.2 15.4 5.4 3.2 17.5 18 3.4
Caleb Thielbar Twins 46 18.8 3.1 22.9 -0.9 7 13.8 11 10.4
Edgmer Escalona Rockies 46 26.9 -3.1 24.7 -3.9 4 16.8 32 -10.6
Scott Atchison Mets 45.1 20.4 -0.8 21.9 -1.4 13.4 7 27 -5.9
Joe Ortiz Rangers 44.2 21.3 1.4 20.5 0.9 0.6 19.6 26 -5.3
Brett Anderson Athletics 44.2 20.6 0 17.5 3.8 0.8 19.3 32 -11.3
Chad Bettis Rockies 44.2 26.4 -3.2 25.1 -4.9 78.2 -58 34 -13.3
Jose Cisnero Astros 43.2 22.2 -1.6 22.6 -1.9 7.7 12 23 -2.7
Scott Downs - – - 43.1 16.1 3.5 17.2 3.3 5 14.5 13 7.1
Matt Thornton - – - 43.1 21 0.4 21.5 -0.8 22.5 -3 20 0.1
Josh Beckett Dodgers 43.1 24.2 -5.6 19.8 -0.2 47.6 -28 30 -9.9
Antonio Bastardo Phillies 42.2 15.4 4.1 20.9 -1.7 5.6 13.7 12 7.8
Matt Guerrier - – - 42.2 19.6 -0.8 22.7 -3.5 60.6 -41.4 22 -2.2
Anthony Bass Padres 42 21.4 -3.3 21.5 -2.5 12.8 6.1 26 -6.5
Joba Chamberlain Yankees 42 28.4 -7.8 23.2 -3.2 11.8 7.1 23 -3.5
Brandon Workman Red Sox 41.2 17.2 3.5 15.9 4 10.9 7.9 23 -3.6
Manny Corpas Rockies 41.2 22 -0.4 20.7 -1.9 3.7 15.1 21 -1.6
Sandy Rosario Giants 41.2 18.3 -0.5 22.9 -4.1 2.8 16 15 4.4
Dan Jennings Marlins 40.2 13.1 5.3 17.6 0.7 2.2 16.1 17 1.9
Pat Neshek Athletics 40.1 22.6 -3.9 23.5 -4.2 9.2 9 17 1.7
Zach Britton Orioles 40 23 -3.3 22 -3 2.4 15.7 23 -4.4
Ethan Martin Phillies 40 27.1 -8.9 21.7 -3.8 1.2 16.8 27 -8.4
Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 39.2 10.9 6.4 14.3 3.8 92.1 -74.2 2 16.4
Blake Beavan Mariners 39.2 23.8 -4.9 20.6 -1.7 2.4 15.5 27 -8.6
David Aardsma Mets 39.2 25.1 -7.9 22 -4.1 20.1 -2.2 20 -1.6
Javier Lopez Giants 39.1 11.4 5.4 13.8 4.1 68.8 -51.1 10 8.3
Joe Thatcher - – - 39.1 16 1.6 16.8 1.1 25.3 -7.6 14 4.3
P.J. Walters Twins 39.1 23.7 -5 24.6 -5.8 16.7 1 30 -11.7
Dan Otero Athletics 39 9.9 7.8 14.9 3.7 56.7 -39.1 7 11.1
Boone Logan Yankees 39 17.9 1.1 12.7 5.7 18.1 -0.5 15 3.1
Rich Hill Indians 38.2 17.7 0 19.1 -0.7 14.9 2.6 30 -12
Daisuke Matsuzaka Mets 38.2 20 -3.3 22.3 -4.9 5.6 11.9 21 -3
Tyler Skaggs Diamondbacks 38.2 22.6 -4.4 18.3 -0.9 16.4 1.1 23 -5
Jose Alvarez Tigers 38.2 24.1 -5.3 20.4 -2 71.5 -54 26 -8
Jake Diekman Phillies 38.1 11.5 5.9 13.2 4.2 3.9 13.4 15 2.8
Phil Coke Tigers 38.1 19 -0.4 21.1 -2.9 3.5 13.8 24 -6.2
Kyle Farnsworth - – - 38.1 19 -1.7 17.2 0.9 94.4 -77.1 20 -2.2
Neil Wagner Blue Jays 38 18.8 -0.4 16.1 2 1.1 16 17 0.6
Josh Fields Astros 38 23.3 -5.4 19.2 -1.1 7.5 9.7 21 -3.4
Fernando Abad Nationals 37.2 14.7 2.2 17.9 -0.9 105.4 -88.4 14 3.5
Michael Bowden Cubs 37.2 19.4 -1.8 22.8 -5.8 21.3 -4.3 18 -0.5
David Huff - – - 37.2 20.8 -2.4 16.3 1.6 5.6 11.4 23 -5.5
Tony Sipp Diamondbacks 37.2 22.1 -4.3 22.6 -5.6 0.4 16.6 22 -4.5
Lucas Luetge Mariners 37 16.7 0.9 18.5 -0.9 2.4 14.3 22 -4.8
Alfredo Aceves Red Sox 37 28.2 -9.8 22.2 -4.6 19.1 -2.4 21 -3.8
Jesse Crain White Sox 36.2 6.7 11.4 12.9 4.5 22.8 -6.2 6 11
Hector Ambriz Astros 36.1 24.7 -7.5 19.3 -1.9 4.1 12.3 28 -11.1
Burch Smith Padres 36.1 23.8 -8.3 17.8 -1.5 5.9 10.5 26 -9.1
Kevin Jepsen Angels 36 14.6 1.8 17 0.2 4.9 11.3 21 -4.3
Randy Choate Cardinals 35.1 10.9 4.7 14 1.9 45.7 -29.8 9 7.4
Darin Downs Tigers 35.1 15 2.2 15 1.8 5.9 10 20 -3.6
Ryan Mattheus Nationals 35.1 14.6 1.3 17.1 -1.1 37.1 -21.2 26 -9.6
Vinnie Pestano Indians 35.1 21.3 -5.2 19.2 -2.4 22.7 -6.8 18 -1.6
Raul Valdes Phillies 35 18.4 -2.5 15.7 0.2 38.5 -22.7 29 -12.7
Chris Withrow Dodgers 34.2 14.9 0.2 12.6 3.2 10 5.7 10 6.1
Gonzalez Germen Mets 34.1 11.9 3 17.1 -1.6 13.3 2.2 15 0.9
J.J. Putz Diamondbacks 34.1 15.8 0.3 14 1.6 2.2 13.3 9 6.9
Brandon Lyon Mets 34.1 16.4 -1.5 18.5 -2.9 9 6.5 20 -4.1
Jeremy Affeldt Giants 33.2 17.9 -3.7 18.1 -2.9 23.8 -8.6 14 1.6
Will Smith Royals 33.1 14.1 2.1 10 5.9 4.1 11 16 -0.5
Chad Jenkins Blue Jays 33.1 15.8 0.5 17 -1.1 8.6 6.5 13 2.5
Rob Scahill Rockies 33.1 19.9 -2.6 17.5 -2.4 22 -7 19 -3.5
Luis Ayala - – - 33 14.6 0.3 14.9 0 11.7 3.1 12 3.3
Roy Oswalt Rockies 32.1 12 4.9 13.2 1.5 7.8 6.8 31 -16
Jared Hughes Pirates 32 15.8 -1.7 16.6 -2.2 16.8 -2.4 17 -2.1
Juan Perez Blue Jays 31.2 14.1 1.2 12.9 2.3 26.9 -12.6 17 -2.3
Greg Burke Mets 31.2 14.9 -1.2 15 -0.7 2 12.3 27 -12.3
Brad Lincoln Blue Jays 31.2 20.8 -5.4 22.5 -7.4 29.5 -15.2 17 -2.3
Josh Lindblom Rangers 31.1 16.6 -0.8 16.9 -1.9 21 -6.8 19 -4.4
Zach Duke - – - 31.1 15.8 -1.6 16.4 -2.3 33 -18.8 23 -8.4
Nick Hagadone Indians 31.1 18 -3.7 17.6 -2.7 3.5 10.6 21 -6.4
Luis Garcia Phillies 31.1 19.3 -5 18.5 -4.4 1.9 12.2 15 -0.4
Brad Brach Padres 31 15.4 -2.1 16.5 -2.5 17.4 -3.4 15 -0.6
Cory Gearrin Braves 31 16.1 -2.3 16.4 -2.5 17.7 -3.7 13 1.4
Andrew Miller Red Sox 30.2 11.2 3.9 9 5.5 28.1 -14.3 12 2.2
Brandon Cumpton Pirates 30.2 9.6 3.9 12.5 1.4 25.6 -11.8 8 6.2
Marc Rzepczynski - – - 30.2 12.4 1.4 13.1 1.3 3.5 10.4 13 1.2
Jonathan Broxton Reds 30.2 17.2 -3.2 16.6 -2.8 23.1 -9.2 17 -2.8
Jeff Manship Rockies 30.2 20.6 -4.7 16.3 -2.5 25.8 -12 25 -10.8
Johnny Hellweg Brewers 30.2 26 -12 25.1 -11.2 3.9 10 30 -15.8
Clayton Mortensen Red Sox 30.1 17.6 -2.6 18.3 -3.9 85.3 -71.6 19 -4.9
Allen Webster Red Sox 30.1 23.7 -8.6 18.9 -4.4 6.1 7.6 30 -15.9
Brandon Beachy Braves 30 14.7 -1.3 13 0.5 26.5 -13 17 -3.1
Ramon Troncoso White Sox 30 19 -4.2 17.7 -3.4 26.4 -12.9 22 -8.1
Guillermo Moscoso Giants 30 20 -7.3 20.4 -6.9 66.7 -53.2 17 -3.1
Louis Coleman Royals 29.2 7.3 7 9.6 4.5 8 5.4 2 11.8
Luke Putkonen Tigers 29.2 13.6 0.9 12.3 1.8 2.5 10.9 11 2.8
Jake Odorizzi Rays 29.2 13.8 -0.4 15.4 -1.3 21.6 -8.2 13 0.8
James McDonald Pirates 29.2 14.7 -1.7 19.2 -5.9 29.5 -16.1 24 -10.2
Donnie Veal White Sox 29.1 14.2 0.3 13.4 0.6 5.5 7.8 16 -2.4
Hiram Burgos Brewers 29.1 18.9 -5.5 19 -5.7 20.5 -7.3 23 -9.4
Greg Reynolds Reds 29.1 19 -5.6 18.1 -4.9 12.7 0.5 19 -5.4
Rafael Betancourt Rockies 28.2 11.1 3.9 14.5 -1.6 33.7 -20.7 15 -1.7
Bruce Rondon Tigers 28.2 10.4 3.6 11 2.6 1 11.9 11 2.3
Josh Edgin Mets 28.2 13.8 -1.5 16.5 -3.5 1.5 11.4 12 1.3
Andrew Bailey Red Sox 28.2 16.4 -2.1 11 2.6 2.2 10.7 12 1.3
Zach Miner Phillies 28.2 18.7 -5.7 17.1 -4.2 25 -12.1 14 -0.7
Carlos Martinez Cardinals 28.1 10.5 2 13 -0.3 7.2 5.5 16 -2.8
Mike Kickham Giants 28.1 19.5 -7.5 11.3 1.5 28.1 -15.3 34 -20.8
Fernando Salas Cardinals 28 12.2 0.1 15 -2.4 76.9 -64.3 15 -2
Alex Wilson Red Sox 27.2 10.2 3.4 16 -2.8 7.6 4.9 16 -3.2
Rob Wooten Brewers 27.2 10.6 2 14.1 -1.6 89.9 -77.4 12 0.8
Josh Zeid Astros 27.2 13.7 -0.7 12.6 0.5 2.7 9.7 12 0.8
Erik Johnson White Sox 27.2 17.9 -4.2 15.7 -2.5 8.8 3.7 16 -3.2
Matt Magill Dodgers 27.2 23.7 -11.8 20.1 -7.6 5.6 6.9 25 -12.2
Jenrry Mejia Mets 27.1 8.1 3.8 7.6 4.8 1.8 10.5 9 3.7
Matt Reynolds Diamondbacks 27.1 9.7 3.1 10.9 1.5 17.4 -5.1 7 5.7
Hector Noesi Mariners 27.1 14.3 -1.3 15.5 -2.5 42.6 -30.3 21 -8.3
Ian Krol Nationals 27.1 15.4 -3.1 13.3 -1 20.8 -8.5 12 0.7
Chien-Ming Wang Blue Jays 27 17.6 -4.5 13.2 -0.4 14.3 -2.1 24 -11.5
Evan Scribner Athletics 26.2 12.4 -0.1 14.4 -1.8 26.4 -14.4 13 -0.6
Kameron Loe - – - 26.2 26.9 -14.5 15 -2.8 11.2 0.8 21 -8.6
Jeremy Horst Phillies 26 15.8 -3.9 16.4 -4.7 28.1 -16.4 19 -6.9
Collin McHugh - – - 26 18 -5.4 14.1 -2.3 2.9 8.8 29 -16.9
Sergio Santos Blue Jays 25.2 5.7 6.7 8 4.1 41.8 -30.2 5 6.9
Dustin McGowan Blue Jays 25.2 11.3 1.1 12.9 -0.7 7.2 4.4 11 0.9
David Purcey White Sox 25.1 13.7 -1.2 15.7 -3.6 16.3 -4.9 7 4.8
Franklin Morales Red Sox 25.1 13.8 -1.3 15.1 -3 6.7 4.7 13 -1.2
Jake Dunning Giants 25.1 13.6 -2.8 12.8 -1.4 16.4 -4.9 8 3.8
Ramon Ortiz Blue Jays 25.1 22.6 -10.2 18.2 -6.2 8.3 3.1 17 -5.2
Sean O’Sullivan Padres 25 11.7 -0.9 16.9 -5.6 8.6 2.6 12 -0.4
Mike Adams Phillies 25 15.8 -4.4 11.4 -0.1 10.1 1.2 11 0.6
Danny Duffy Royals 24.1 9 2.7 13.4 -1.9 24.8 -13.8 5 6.3
Gavin Floyd White Sox 24.1 13.5 -1.4 10.5 1 16.9 -6 15 -3.7
James Paxton Mariners 24 9.4 2.1 8.9 2.5 22.5 -11.6 5 6.1
J.C. Ramirez Phillies 24 19.7 -8.8 15.8 -5 44.4 -33.6 22 -10.9
Joakim Soria Rangers 23.2 10.5 1.4 10.1 1.1 34.1 -23.5 10 1
Evan Reed Tigers 23.1 10.8 0.6 11 0.1 12.5 -2 16 -5.2
Mitchell Boggs - – - 23.1 20.8 -10 16.1 -5.6 2.6 7.9 23 -12.2
Curtis Partch Reds 23.1 24.7 -14.1 17 -6.5 49.3 -38.7 16 -5.2
Ted Lilly Dodgers 23 14.3 -4.4 13.6 -3.2 4.1 6.3 16 -5.3
Shawn Camp Cubs 23 19.5 -8.7 13.6 -3.2 4 6.4 18 -7.3
Chaz Roe Diamondbacks 22.1 11.8 -1.3 9.9 0.2 9.9 0.2 10 0.4
Mike Fiers Brewers 22.1 19.2 -9 11.8 -1.7 7.9 2.2 20 -9.6
Michael Kirkman Rangers 22 10.6 0.6 11.7 -1.3 11.3 -1.4 20 -9.8
Brad Boxberger Padres 22 11.6 -2.2 10.4 -0.5 4.2 5.7 9 1.2
Henry Rodriguez - – - 22 16.2 -6.2 16.7 -6.8 14.2 -4.3 12 -1.8
Drew Pomeranz Rockies 21.2 16.8 -5.6 14 -4.2 28.6 -18.8 15 -4.9
Cory Rasmus - – - 21.2 17.2 -7.4 13.5 -3.4 19.4 -9.6 15 -4.9
Josh Lueke Rays 21.1 11.2 -1.5 11.7 -1.5 14.8 -5.2 12 -2.1
Rhiner Cruz Astros 21.1 13.2 -3.1 15.7 -5.5 52 -42.4 9 0.9
Brett Myers Indians 21.1 22.3 -12.5 12.3 -2.1 0.2 9.5 19 -9.1
Drake Britton Red Sox 21 7.7 2.7 8.9 1.1 4.4 5 9 0.8
Brad Hand Marlins 20.2 10 -0.6 10.4 -1.1 5.5 3.8 7 2.6
Kevin Chapman Astros 20.1 10.4 -0.9 12.3 -2.6 13.7 -4.5 6 3.4
Michael Roth Angels 20 5.8 3.4 8.7 0.8 25.8 -16.7 16 -6.7
Keith Butler Cardinals 20 7.8 1 13 -4 31 -22 9 0.3
Joe Savery Phillies 20 9.5 -0.4 10.7 -1.7 5.5 3.6 11 -1.7
Vidal Nuno Yankees 20 10.8 -1 12.8 -3.2 26.4 -17.4 5 4.3
B.J. Rosenberg Phillies 19.2 5.9 3.2 10.1 -1.2 6.6 2.3 10 -0.9
Robert Carson Mets 19.2 22.2 -13.7 13.7 -4.9 5.2 3.7 19 -9.9
Jake Petricka White Sox 19.1 8.6 0.9 10.3 -1.1 10.8 -2 7 2
Phillippe Aumont Phillies 19.1 8.3 0.5 10.4 -1.7 25.3 -16.6 11 -2
Brandon Gomes Rays 19.1 8.9 -0.1 7.4 1.8 17.1 -8.3 15 -6
Chia-Jen Lo Astros 19.1 11 -1.9 11.3 -2.1 27.1 -18.4 9 0
Jose Valverde Tigers 19.1 14.8 -5.3 9.5 -0.3 38.6 -29.9 12 -3
Eric O’Flaherty Braves 18 8.9 -0.9 8.2 -0.1 4.5 3.6 5 3.4
Chris Resop Athletics 18 12.5 -4.2 11.1 -2.5 59.9 -51.8 13 -4.6
Brian Flynn Marlins 18 13.9 -5.8 10.5 -2.4 9.7 -1.6 17 -8.6
Edgar Gonzalez - – - 18 16.5 -7.9 11.8 -3.2 3.8 4.4 16 -7.6
Michael Stutes Phillies 17.2 9.1 -1 11.5 -3.5 8.9 -0.9 11 -2.8
Michael Blazek - – - 17.1 12.7 -5 12.1 -4.3 11.6 -3.8 12 -3.9
Billy Buckner Angels 17.1 15.3 -7.4 11.6 -3.4 61.7 -53.9 9 -0.9
Robert Coello Angels 17 5.1 2.5 6.7 1.4 30.3 -22.6 7 0.9
Vic Black - – - 17 7.1 0.3 9.6 -1.9 68.1 -60.5 7 0.9
Cesar Jimenez Phillies 17 9.1 -1.4 11.5 -3.8 7.1 0.5 7 0.9
Josh Stinson Orioles 17 11 -2.7 7.6 0.5 60.8 -53.1 7 0.9
Colt Hynes Padres 17 11.4 -4.1 10.3 -2.6 14.4 -6.8 17 -9.1
Trevor Bauer Indians 17 14.4 -6.6 13.5 -5.4 8.9 -1.3 11 -3.1
Jon Rauch Marlins 16.2 6.9 0.6 8.3 -0.8 94.5 -86.9 14 -6.3
Brian Omogrosso White Sox 16.1 8.9 -0.8 9.2 -1.4 19.4 -12 18 -10.4
Alex Colome Rays 16 9.7 -2.5 9.4 -1.7 15.2 -8 8 -0.6
Chad Durbin Phillies 16 11.5 -4.2 8.5 -1.3 13.8 -6.6 17 -9.6
Steve Johnson Orioles 15.2 8.7 -1.1 8.6 -1.1 20.6 -13.6 13 -5.7
Buddy Boshers Angels 15.1 5.7 1.3 7.9 -0.6 16.2 -9.3 8 -0.9
Yordano Ventura Royals 15.1 9.8 -2.4 7.9 -0.6 20.3 -13.3 6 1.1
Charlie Leesman White Sox 15.1 11.7 -4.2 10.1 -2.8 8.9 -2 14 -6.9
Peter Moylan Dodgers 15.1 11.4 -4.8 10.8 -3.9 16.9 -10 11 -3.9
Taijuan Walker Mariners 15 4.1 3.1 6.8 0.3 86.8 -80 7 0
Thad Weber - – - 15 9.1 -2.3 7.8 -0.8 17.9 -11.1 5 2
Scott Baker Cubs 15 10.2 -3.2 9.9 -3.2 9 -2.2 6 1
Cole DeVries Twins 15 15.2 -8.1 11.3 -4.1 21.8 -15 18 -11
Eury De la Rosa Diamondbacks 14.2 11.1 -4.2 6.8 -0.1 21.1 -14.5 13 -6.2
Matt Langwell - – - 14 8.2 -1.7 7.7 -1.3 9.2 -2.9 8 -1.5
Brooks Raley Cubs 14 8.5 -2 6.8 -0.5 16.1 -9.8 9 -2.5
Brian Wilson Dodgers 13.2 3.3 2.6 4.6 1.5 19.6 -13.4 1 5.3
Jonathan Sanchez Pirates 13.2 15.9 -9.9 8.1 -2 23.1 -16.9 18 -11.7
Steven Wright Red Sox 13.1 6.1 0.5 8.4 -2 65.9 -59.8 8 -1.8
Arquimedes Caminero Marlins 13 6.4 -0.5 6.8 -0.9 55 -49.1 4 2
Derek Lowe Rangers 13 9.3 -2.8 6.6 -0.4 7.5 -1.7 13 -7
Aaron Laffey - – - 12.2 8.4 -2.7 8.8 -2.9 47.8 -42.1 10 -4.1
Sam Freeman Cardinals 12.1 4.4 1 6.9 -1.3 71.5 -66 3 2.7
Xavier Cedeno - – - 12.1 5.9 -0.2 7.6 -1.8 13.5 -7.9 12 -6.3
John Gast Cardinals 12.1 5.9 -0.5 6.4 -0.8 6.3 -0.7 7 -1.3
Kyuji Fujikawa Cubs 12 4 1.6 4.1 1.3 22.9 -17.5 7 -1.4
Chad Billingsley Dodgers 12 6.3 -1.1 6.7 -1.3 28.7 -23.3 4 1.6
Brett Marshall Yankees 12 10.3 -4.4 7.9 -2.2 92.5 -87.1 6 -0.4
Nate Karns Nationals 12 12.1 -6.7 6.6 -1.1 18.5 -13.1 11 -5.4
Jose Ortega Tigers 11.2 7.5 -1.8 6.4 -0.8 15.6 -10.4 5 0.4
Mark Lowe Angels 11.2 8.1 -2.8 9.2 -3.6 25.2 -19.9 12 -6.6
Michael Tonkin Twins 11.1 2.8 2.5 4.8 0.6 30.1 -25 6 -0.7
Daniel Webb White Sox 11.1 3.2 2.4 4.3 1.1 81.3 -76.1 4 1.3
David Martinez Astros 11.1 5.3 0 6.6 -1.2 23.6 -18.5 11 -5.7
Pedro Feliciano Mets 11.1 6.1 -1.2 6.5 -1.4 48.5 -43.4 5 0.3
Cory Burns Rangers 11.1 7.4 -1.7 9.4 -4 7.5 -2.4 4 1.3
Rubby de la Rosa Red Sox 11.1 7.6 -2 7.1 -1.7 85.2 -80.1 7 -1.7
Jose De La Torre Red Sox 11.1 7.6 -2 6.1 -0.8 35.4 -30.3 8 -2.7
Zeke Spruill Diamondbacks 11.1 8.8 -3.5 6.6 -1.5 84.6 -79.5 11 -5.7
David Hale Braves 11 1 4.1 1.7 3.4 41.4 -36.4 1 4.1
Ryan Reid Pirates 11 5.7 -0.9 5.6 -0.6 11.2 -6.2 2 3.1
Sam Dyson Marlins 11 8.1 -3.1 6.8 -1.8 18.8 -13.8 12 -6.9
Bobby LaFromboise Mariners 10.2 2.7 2.3 4.5 0.6 26.3 -21.5 8 -3
Javy Guerra Dodgers 10.2 5.1 -0.5 5.2 -0.4 101 -96.2 9 -4
Matt Harrison Rangers 10.2 6.7 -1.3 5.2 -0.1 67.5 -62.7 11 -6
Jeurys Familia Mets 10.2 8.3 -3.7 7 -2.2 22.1 -17.2 5 0
Sean Marshall Reds 10.1 2.5 2.3 3.4 1.2 -0.1 4.8 3 1.8
Kris Johnson Pirates 10.1 3.4 1.1 4.9 -0.2 19.1 -14.4 7 -2.2
Jeremy Jeffress Blue Jays 10.1 4.3 0.8 3 1.9 19 -14.3 1 3.8
Jimmy Nelson Brewers 10 3.5 1.1 4.5 0 20 -15.5 1 3.6
Pedro Beato Red Sox 10 5.1 -0.1 6.8 -2 8.7 -4.2 5 -0.4
Jorge De Leon Astros 10 6.7 -1.9 7.6 -2.8 19.9 -15.4 7 -2.4
Sean Burnett Angels 9.2 4.9 -0.4 4.1 0.5 26.9 -22.5 1 3.5
Chance Ruffin Mariners 9.2 7.1 -2.5 3.9 0.6 19.1 -14.8 10 -5.5
Shairon Martis Twins 9.2 8 -3.4 5.3 -0.6 95.4 -91.1 6 -1.5
Stolmy Pimentel Pirates 9.1 2 2.1 3.8 0.5 10.4 -6.2 4 0.3
Kyle McClellan Rangers 9.1 8 -3.3 7.1 -2.7 79 -74.8 8 -3.7
Ryan Brasier Angels 9 4.6 -0.5 4.9 -0.6 5.8 -1.7 2 2.2
Erik Davis Nationals 8.2 0.6 3.4 1.5 2.5 74.3 -70.4 3 1
Chris Hatcher Marlins 8.2 4.5 -0.6 4.7 -0.8 13.6 -9.7 13 -9
Tom Layne Padres 8.2 5.8 -2.1 5.2 -1.3 16.8 -12.9 4 0
Scott Barnes Indians 8.2 7.2 -3.3 4 0.1 38.3 -34.4 7 -3
Francisley Bueno Royals 8.1 2.6 1.4 4 -0.1 81.9 -78.2 0 n/a
Jose Dominguez Dodgers 8.1 3.5 0.1 5.3 -1.6 24.1 -20.4 3 0.9
Chris Volstad Rockies 8.1 5 -0.6 5.5 -1.8 12.7 -8.9 10 -6.1
Barry Enright Angels 8.1 7.3 -3.4 5.9 -2 13 -9.2 12 -8.1
Heath Hembree Giants 7.2 0.6 2.7 1.5 2 33 -29.5 0 n/a
Deunte Heath White Sox 7.2 9.5 -5.7 8.2 -4.5 86.3 -82.9 10 -6.4
Stephen Pryor Mariners 7.1 1.4 2 2.5 1 44.6 -41.3 0 n/a
Jair Jurrjens Orioles 7.1 3.2 0.4 3.9 -0.4 35.6 -32.2 4 -0.6
John Maine Marlins 7.1 5.9 -2.6 4.1 -0.8 90.2 -86.9 10 -6.6
Ricky Romero Blue Jays 7.1 7.8 -4.3 5.9 -2.4 45.8 -42.4 9 -5.6
Joel Hanrahan Red Sox 7.1 9.9 -6.2 5.9 -2.4 14.2 -10.9 8 -4.6
Josh Wall Dodgers 7 6.2 -3.2 4.7 -1.5 39.2 -36.1 14 -10.7
Simon Castro White Sox 6.2 4 -0.7 3.9 -0.7 48.9 -45.8 2 1.1
Zac Rosscup Cubs 6.2 4.8 -1.7 5.1 -2.1 25.3 -22.3 1 2.1
Frank Francisco Mets 6.1 2.3 0.4 3.3 -0.4 11.9 -9 3 -0.1
Eduardo Sanchez Cubs 6.1 4.5 -1.5 4.6 -1.7 10.8 -7.9 4 -1.1
Mike Zagurski - – - 6.1 6.3 -3.5 5.7 -2.8 16.4 -13.6 12 -9.1
Matt Daley Yankees 6 0.6 2.2 1.3 1.5 28.5 -25.8 0 n/a
Charles Brewer Diamondbacks 6 1.7 1.1 2.7 0 29.1 -26.4 2 0.8
Alberto Cabrera Cubs 6 3.4 -0.6 4.4 -1.7 3.6 -0.9 3 -0.2
Donnie Joseph Royals 5.2 1.8 0.9 2.8 -0.1 41.8 -39.2 0 n/a
Ramon Ramirez Giants 5.2 7 -4.6 5.3 -2.8 60.4 -57.9 8 -5.4
Pedro Villarreal Reds 5.2 8.4 -5.9 4.2 -1.6 16.1 -13.5 8 -5.4
Preston Guilmet Indians 5.1 2.8 -0.3 4.4 -1.9 86.7 -84.3 6 -3.5
Nick Maronde Angels 5.1 5.2 -2.8 4.3 -1.7 2.2 0.2 6 -3.5
Luis Perez Blue Jays 5 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.8 21.3 -19 3 -0.7
Joe Martinez Indians 5 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.1 17.7 -15.5 1 1.3
Matt Shoemaker Angels 5 1.4 0.9 2 0.4 17.6 -15.3 0 n/a
Dellin Betances Yankees 5 1.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 94.6 -92.4 6 -3.7
Rafael Dolis Cubs 5 2.6 -0.2 3.7 -1.4 34.5 -32.3 2 0.3
Chang-Yong Lim Cubs 5 3.5 -1.2 3.8 -1.6 28.5 -26.3 3 -0.7
Jose Contreras Pirates 5 4.4 -2.2 3.3 -1 27.3 -25.1 5 -2.7
Edgar Olmos Marlins 5 5.6 -3.3 3.6 -1.3 38 -35.7 9 -6.7
Mauricio Robles Phillies 4.2 1.3 0.8 2.3 -0.2 72.9 -70.8 3 -0.8
Neftali Feliz Rangers 4.2 1.8 0.5 3 -0.8 25.3 -23.2 0 n/a
Octavio Dotel Tigers 4.2 2.2 0.1 3.2 -0.9 71.8 -69.7 7 -4.8
Phil Irwin Pirates 4.2 2.2 -0.1 2.5 -0.4 76.2 -74.1 5 -2.8
Enny Romero Rays 4.2 3.1 -1 3.8 -1.6 34.6 -32.5 0 n/a
Tim Byrdak Mets 4.2 4.8 -2.8 3.2 -1.1 21.5 -19.4 4 -1.8
C.C. Lee Indians 4.1 2.1 -0.1 3.2 -1.1 24 -22 3 -1
Brayan Villarreal - – - 4.1 4.9 -2.5 4.4 -2 28.2 -26.2 10 -8
Mickey Storey Blue Jays 4 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 38 -36.2 3 -1.1
Steven Ames Marlins 4 1.2 0.6 1.6 0.3 35.1 -33.2 2 -0.1
Hideki Okajima Athletics 4 3.5 -1.7 2.8 -0.9 21.6 -19.7 1 0.9
Nick Christiani Reds 4 3.9 -2 3.3 -1.5 11.7 -9.9 1 0.9
Chris Leroux Pirates 4 4.5 -2.7 3.1 -1.3 47.5 -45.7 3 -1.1
Cesar Cabral Yankees 3.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 1 65.4 -63.8 1 0.7
David Holmberg Diamondbacks 3.2 2.4 -0.7 3.7 -2.1 36.6 -35 3 -1.3
Zach Putnam Cubs 3.1 1.8 -0.3 0.8 0.8 96.8 -95.3 7 -5.5
Chris Dwyer Royals 3 1 0.5 1.5 0 84 -82.6 0 n/a
Victor Marte Cardinals 3 2.1 -0.7 2.2 -0.9 26.8 -25.5 2 -0.6
Hisanori Takahashi Cubs 3 2.7 -1.3 1.8 -0.4 106.3 -105 2 -0.6
Pedro Figueroa Athletics 3 4.6 -3.2 1.9 -0.5 37.2 -35.8 4 -2.6
Dave Bush Blue Jays 3 7.5 -6 2.5 -1.1 29.3 -27.9 5 -3.6
Duane Below Marlins 2.2 1.2 0 1.9 -0.7 21.9 -20.7 3 -1.8
Sean Henn Mets 2.2 3.4 -2.2 2.5 -1.3 20.3 -19.1 1 0.2
Eric Surkamp Giants 2.2 4.8 -3.7 3.2 -2 65.8 -64.6 7 -5.8
Cristhian Martinez Braves 2.1 0.9 0.2 1 0 21.9 -20.9 2 -0.9
Alex Burnett - – - 2.1 1.1 0 1.9 -0.8 47.7 -46.6 3 -1.9
Joe Paterson Diamondbacks 2.1 1.5 -0.4 1.8 -0.7 73.3 -72.3 1 0.1
Jairo Asencio Orioles 2.1 2.2 -1 0.9 0.2 47.8 -46.7 2 -0.9
Maikel Cleto Cardinals 2.1 2.3 -1.3 1.1 0 89.2 -88.2 5 -3.9
Kyle Drabek Blue Jays 2.1 2.8 -1.6 1.5 -0.4 98.2 -97.2 2 -0.9
Josh Tomlin Indians 2 0.7 0.2 1.6 -0.6 81.2 -80.3 0 n/a
Chris Narveson Brewers 2 1.1 -0.2 1.4 -0.5 34 -33.1 0 n/a
Clay Rapada Indians 2 1.5 -0.5 1.9 -1 21.9 -21 0 n/a
Skip Schumaker Dodgers 2 1.6 -0.7 1.9 -1 26.8 -25.9 0 n/a
Justin Germano Blue Jays 2 2.1 -1.1 1 0 17.6 -16.7 2 -1.1
Cody Eppley Yankees 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 20.7 -19.9 4 -3.2
Zach Clark Orioles 1.2 1.1 -0.3 1.7 -0.9 22.7 -22 3 -2.2
Miles Mikolas Padres 1.2 1.1 -0.4 1.6 -0.8 105.8 -105 0 n/a
Zach Phillips Marlins 1.2 1.5 -0.7 1.8 -1 16.1 -15.4 1 -0.2
Casper Wells - – - 1.2 1.8 -1 2.1 -1.4 8.7 -7.9 5 -4.2
Daniel Stange Angels 1.2 2.7 -1.9 1.6 -0.8 43.2 -42.5 3 -2.2
Duke Welker Pirates 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0 118.9 -118.3 0 n/a
Wilmer Font Rangers 1.1 1.2 -0.5 1.9 -1.2 17.4 -16.8 0 n/a
Blake Wood Indians 1.1 1.3 -0.7 1.5 -0.9 107.4 -106.8 0 n/a
Jim Miller Yankees 1.1 2.4 -1.8 1.5 -0.9 42 -41.4 3 -2.4
Sean Nolin Blue Jays 1.1 2.4 -1.8 1.5 -0.9 14.4 -13.8 6 -5.4
Onelki Garcia Dodgers 1.1 3.2 -2.7 1.9 -1.3 28.9 -28.3 2 -1.4
Michael Belfiore Orioles 1.1 4 -3.3 1.3 -0.7 59.7 -59.1 2 -1.4
David Murphy Rangers 1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 82.9 -82.5 0 n/a
Ryan Raburn Indians 1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 49.5 -49.1 0 n/a
Jamey Carroll Twins 1 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.1 82.9 -82.4 0 n/a
Jake Elmore Astros 1 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.1 37.5 -37.1 0 n/a
Daniel Bard Red Sox 1 0.8 -0.3 1 -0.5 3.4 -2.9 1 -0.5
Chris Bootcheck Yankees 1 0.8 -0.4 1 -0.5 1.6 -1.1 1 -0.5
Tyler Robertson Twins 1 1.4 -1 0 0.4 91.9 -91.4 1 -0.5
Justin Freeman Reds 1 1.9 -1.5 0.9 -0.4 80.6 -80.2 2 -1.5
Anthony Recker Mets 1 2.3 -1.9 1.4 -0.9 68.4 -68 2 -1.5
Everett Teaford Royals 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 -0.3 102.9 -102.6 0 n/a
Logan Kensing Rockies 0.2 0.4 0 0.4 -0.1 39.7 -39.4 0 n/a
Jeff Beliveau Rays 0.2 0.6 -0.3 0.8 -0.4 41.2 -40.9 0 n/a
John McDonald Phillies 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.3 85.4 -85.2 0 n/a
Rob Johnson Cardinals 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.3 33.9 -33.8 0 n/a
Alberto Gonzalez Yankees 0.1 0.1 0 0.3 -0.1 96.2 -96.1 0 n/a
Sam Fuld Rays 0.1 0.1 0 0.3 -0.1 28.9 -28.8 0 n/a
Josh Harrison Pirates 0.1 0.1 0 0.3 -0.1 97.2 -97 0 n/a
Yunesky Maya Nationals 0.1 1.7 -1.5 0.3 -0.1 103.7 -103.6 2 -1.8
David Carpenter Angels 0.1 2.2 -2 0.8 -0.6 85.4 -85.3 4 -3.8

Obviously, the more you pitch, the more these numbers can go up/down, so these shouldn’t be used to draw too many conclusions – I still think the plain old rate stats are better. But this certainly is valuable if you want to know exactly how many runs a pitcher can save. For the record, I would trust the FIP-based one the most, because it is defense-independent while still being descriptive, unlike xFIP; also, it is park- and league-adjusted unlike wRCRAA and RAA. The others obviously have their uses, though. The linear-weights based numbers also shouldn’t be looked at too hard since they can be extremely high – I doubt that Chris Sale was 97 runs above average (that would be almost 12 WAR) as wRCRAA suggests. Also note that anything under 30 IP or so should not be looked at too much because numbers in such low sample sizes can be ridiculously inflated – for example, I highly am sure that infielder Jamey Carroll was not actually 93 runs below an average pitcher (by FIP) in the one inning he pitched.

 

Shin-Soo Choo, Strengths, and Weaknesses

You’ve probably heard that corner outfielder/center fielder if forced Shin-Soo Choo recently signed a 7-year, $130 million deal with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers were in dire need of a left fielder after trading away Craig Gentry and his 3.4 WAR(!) to the Oakland A’s. (One could say that the A’s landed Gentry… ah, forget it). Signing Choo ensures (hopefully) that the likes of Jim Adduci, Engel Beltre, and Michael Choice will be kept out of left field for the most part. The Rangers’ outfield is now set with Choo in left, Leonys Martin in center, and Alex Rios in right. The Rangers improved an important part of their team by signing Choo.

Was the deal a good one? We can let people argue about that, and I’m not going to make predictions because most predictions will turn out wrong and I can’t even plan my day tomorrow, let alone think about something six or seven years down the road. My general sense tells me that no, Choo will not live up to this contract in the final years of the deal but the Rangers needed to make that sacrifice in order to get him for the next few years. What I’m here to discuss is the perception that Shin-Soo Choo can’t hit lefties.

Choo is a good hitter, and an on-base machine. He had the second-highest OBP in the National League this year, behind only teammate Joey Votto, and the second highest walk percentage in all of baseball (again, only behind Votto). He’s a good hitter – he batted .285 and had a 151 wRC+ – and provides decent pop, hitting 21 home runs this year. But when we look at his righty/lefty splits, we see a huge gap between his ability to hit righties and his ability to hit lefties. Against righties this year, he mashed his way to a .317/.457/.554 line with a .438 wOBA and 183 wRC+, to go along with 21 home runs. Against lefties? He hit only .215/.347/.265, with just a .292 wOBA and 81 wRC+, over 100 less than his wRC+ against righties. Oh, and no home runs.

What a lot of people are saying is that Choo just can’t hit left-handed pitching, and for that reason giving him such a big contract is a bad idea. Well, let me throw this out there for you: If Choo hit like he did against righties like he did against lefties, he would be producing at a Jose Altuve-ish level: below average, but not terrible, hitting; average baserunning; and below-average defense – by no means a bad baseball player. As George Carlin once said, “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” A below-average player isn’t necessarily bad, half the players in the whole league are below-average. A below-average player isn’t worth $130 million, but Choo’s not at all below average because he doesn’t hit only lefties. Defensively, he’s a little bit more of a question mark: his UZR was really bad this past year, but he was playing centerfield, which he never really had done before, and will be playing left in Texas. Choo has a career 5.7 UZR in left field, actually. Rangers Ballpark, where he will be playing, does have a spacious outfield, but Choo shouldn’t be too much of a disaster defensively.

So basically, if Choo hit against lefties all the time, he would be slightly below average at hitting (82 wRC+ this year vs. lefties, 92 lifetime), but still be very good at getting on base (.347 OBP this year vs. lefties, .340 lifetime). But he doesn’t hit against lefties all the time! He hits against righties a lot, too – in fact, in 2013, he had over twice as many plate appearances against righties than he did against lefties. So instead of focusing on the fact that he’s below-average at hitting against lefties and can’t hit home runs off of them (which, as we just saw, is a little bit of an overblown concern), let’s focus on the fact that he destroys right-handers and overall is a fantastic hitter with even more fantastic on-base skills. Sure, as he gets older, his fielding and baserunning will decline along with his hitting. But for now, the Rangers have a very good hitter who can play a decent left field and won’t totally clog up the basepaths. He’ll put up at least 3 wins this season, probably, and could help the Rangers finally make it back to the ALDS after a couple of disappointing late-season finishes.

I think that this is a very important thing to notice: just because an otherwise very good player has a significant weakness, it doesn’t mean that they aren’t still good. If we look at Choo as a very good hitter who has an enormous righty/lefty split, or even just a glorified platoon hitter, he might not be worth all that money. But that isn’t who he is; he’s someone who can get on base against lefties, eat righties for breakfast, and provide decent value in the field and on the bases. That’s a good baseball player. Want to know something? Choo hit better this year against lefties than Jacoby Ellsbury did. We certainly don’t hear about Ellsbury’s large platoon split. So, folks, I present to you Shin-Soo Choo: not a player with a glaring weakness, but a player with a huge strength.

How much are the Red Sox losing with Jacoby Ellsbury gone?

A few weeks ago, Red Sox centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury signed a 7-year deal with the Yankees, a la Johnny Damon, switching sides in one of the more heated rivalries in baseball. The Red Sox reportedly never made him a formal offer and agreed to let him go, showing either a) their unwillingness to make a major financial commitment to a player entering his age-30 season or b) their willingness to make a commitment to their options to replace him, whether those come from in-house or not, or c) a combination of the two.

Their reluctance to pay Ellsbury a lot of money is understandable, given their tendency to shy away from large contracts ever since the Carl Crawford fiasco and the Adrain Gonzalez not-quite-a-fiasco-but-not-a-success. Ellsbury’s deal takes him through his age-37 season, and while his type of player typically ages well, various projection systems only put him at around 3-4 (f)WAR next year. That may or may not be fair – while he did put up nearly 6 WAR this season, he only had 1.4 the year before (albeit in only 323 plate appearances, good enough for 2.6 WAR/600, which is above average). He had an unbelievable 2011, with his even .400 wOBA, his defense, and his baserunning leading him to a 9.1 win season. But before that, in an injury-plagued 2010 season, he managed under 100 PA and had negative WAR. Overall, in his career (which began as a September call-up in 2007), he has 23.7 WAR and 4.4 WAR/600 – so the 3.4 wins that Oliver projects him to get next year in exactly 600 trips to the plate may seem a little low.

Overall, given his injury history, I think it is fair to expect Ellsbury to put up 18 WAR over the course of his deal – maybe more, maybe less, but we’ll say 15 just to make it easy. But for $153 million? That’s a lot of money. While Ellsbury is certainly a difference maker in all facets of the game, and the Yankees benefit not only from having him on their team but keeping him away from the division-rival Red Sox as well, paying somebody $8-9 million per win is a lot (average is currently about $5-7 million). Even adjusting for baseball inflation, which is about 10% per season, Ellsbury’s deal could definitely be an overpay when all’s said and done. That’s not to say it was a terrible signing, and the purpose of this article is not to bash the Yankees, but we can understand now why the Red Sox didn’t want to pay him that kind of money. They think they have better options – or, that is, options that can give them more for the money they earn – and Ellsbury’s loss won’t hurt them too much.

The default in-house option is centerfield prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr. Bradley is 23 years old, just finished up a season at the Red Sox AAA affiliate (with some stints in the majors), and is generally regarded as a good prospect – not fantastic, but good. He is considered to have a high floor, and he is a phenomenal defender (as evidenced by this catch) with a great arm. He has average speed – although his high baseball I.Q. makes him a good baserunner – and projects to be an average hitter with good plate discipline but “meh” power. Add these up, and you have an above-average starter. He will probably never have a 9-win season like Ellsbury did, although to be fair, very few players ever do. He’s never had major injury problems since a tendon injury back in his junior season at South Carolina that dropped his draft stock to the supplemental round after the first round.

It’s possible that Bradley could flame out. But it’s also possible that he could provide the Red Sox with valuable performance at a premium position. And he will obviously be a lot cheaper than Ellsbury. But just how much of Ellsbury’s production will he be able to replace? Probably not all of it – Ellsbury is a special player with special skills, and he made it much higher on prospect lists than Bradley has. But actually, the two are very comparable when it comes to their minor league statistics. Let’s take a look (all stats courtesy of FanGraphs):

Level: Single A advanced (Salem Red Sox for Bradley in 2012, Wilmington Blue Rocks for Ellsbury in 2006 – both Red Sox affiliates in those years, the Blue Rocks are now the Royals’ A+ affiliate and Salem is the Red Sox’s)


Bradley Ellsbury
Age 22 22
G 67 61
PA 304 281
HR 3 4
BB% 17.10% 8.90%
K% 13.20% 10.00%
AVG 0.359 0.299
OBP 0.480 0.379
BABIP 0.407 0.324
Spd 6 7.8
wSB 0.6 1
wRC+ 181 122

Spd refers to speed score – a statistic I don’t usually really like, because it’s a little crude and doesn’t always accurately describe a player’s actual speed, but it’s a decent indicator of roughly how fast Ellsbury and Bradley were at this level. Ellsbury, who’s known for his blazing speed (he led the majors with 52 stolen bases this year and got caught only 4 times), obviously beats Braldey. He also beats Bradley in wSB, the amount of runs added/lost from stolen bases/caught stealings – not by much, but he didn’t really have all that many games to amass lots of stolen base totals. In  the hitting statistics, though, Bradley handily beats Ellsbury – he has a significantly higher batting average, OBP, wRC+, and walk percentage (although his strikeout percentage is a little higher) in about the same amount of plate appearances.

Now let’s look at AA, where both played for the Portland Sea Dogs – Bradley in 2012 and Ellsbury in 2006 (he also played for them in 17 games at the beginning of the 2007 season before everybody realized he was too good for that level and he got promoted to AAA Pawtucket). This is an excellent way to compare, because both were promoted from class A advanced in the middle of the season.


Bradley Ellsbury
Age 22 22
G 61 50
PA 271 225
HR 6 3
BB% 12.90% 10.70%
K% 18.10% 11.10%
AVG 0.271 0.308
OBP 0.373 0.387
BABIP 0.316 0.339
Spd 5.7 6.7
wSB 0.4 0
wRC+ 127 135

The tables now turn – Ellsbury still has Bradley beat in speed score (Bradley does have the advantage in wSB, but it’s minuscule), and now Ellsbury’s got the hitting statistics as well – batting average, OBP, and wRC+. Bradley still walks more, but he also still strikes out more. They had roughly the same amount of plate appearances.

I won’t count Ellsbury’s stint at AA in 2007, because he wasn’t really at the right level, but we shouldn’t discredit him for it – he had a .516 wOBA and 220 wRC+, batting .452 in 83 plate appearances with 8 stolen bases before being promoted. With that in mind, let’s look at their triple-A statistics (both playing for the Pawtucket Red Sox, Bradley in 2013 – this year – and Ellsbury in 2007).


Bradley Ellsbury
Age 23 23
G 80 87
PA 374 401
HR 10 2
BB% 11.00% 8.00%
K% 20.10% 11.70%
AVG 0.275 0.298
OBP 0.374 0.360
BABIP 0.331 0.337
Spd 5.2 8.3
wSB -1.8 4
wRC+ 137 106

Still, Ellsbury wins in the running statistics (Bradley actually cost his team runs trying to steal bases), but now we see Bradley pull ahead in hitting a little bit. He has a lower batting average, but both his OBP and wRC+ are higher, and his walk rate is too. An alarming number is his strikeouts – he has his K% go up to over 20 percent, a number that’s too high for comfort. His power shows up with 10 home runs, not a fantastic total but a respectable one, and one that is five times higher than Ellsbury achieved in more plate appearances at the same level. And as you probably know, Ellsbury managed a 32-homer campaign one year. So there is reason to be optimistic about Bradley’s power, even if he projects to be below-average in that respect.

There’s also Bradley’s 2013 major league statistics to look at – in just over 100 plate appearances, he managed a miserable 69 wRC+. It’s necessary to bear in mind, though, that over a third of those came in April, when he had made the team out of spring training despite never playing an inning of baseball above AA, and hit a terrible .097 in 38 trips to the plate as pitchers exploited the numerous holes in his swing. Not everybody is Jose Fernandez, after all. He came back up for 3 games in May, a few games in June, a few in July, and for almost all of September as a call-up. In the month of September, after he had had an entire year at triple-A to improve his swing, he hit a respectable .243 (91 wRC+) in 41 plate appearances. If his September stats are an indicator of what he can do now at the major league level, and he’s only going to get better as he improves his swing, Red Sox fans and the team itself have reason to be optimistic about his future.

So what does this tell us? It tells us that Bradley is a pretty comparable hitter to Ellsbury, at least in the minors. Obviously, future hitting success isn’t always reflected in minor league statistics, but there’s no reason to think that Bradley won’t be able to hit for respectable numbers at the major league level given what Ellsbury was able to do. Granted, Ellsbury gets a lot of his hitting numbers increased by his ability to stretch hits and beat out infield singles, but Bradley should be able to hit. He might not be the base-stealing threat that Ellsbury was/is, but he will fill the hole defensively in centerfield more than capably. He doesn’t have the upside that Ellsbury did coming into the majors, but he can definitely be a good big league player. He’ll be cheaper than Ellsbury, and with the money they save the Red Sox should be able to replace Ellsbury’s production elsewhere too. He’s under the Red Sox’s control for six more years.

ZiPS, a projection system created by Dan Szymborski, predicts that Bradley will get 1.5 WAR in 440 AB in 2014, then 2.0, 2.3, 2.6, 2.9, 2.9 in the years after that – never getting above 3 in a season, but good enough to be above-average. Meanwhile, Oliver, which is known for being accurate predicting players coming into the majors from the minors, says he will get 2.9 WAR in 2014, then 3.1, 3.1, 3.2, and 3.2 for 15.5 total WAR in the next five years – more optimistic than ZiPS (it doesn’t predict the 2019 season for Bradley, unlike ZiPS does). Ellsbury’s Oliver projections for the next five years are 3.4 for 2014, then 3.1, 2.8, 2.6, and 2.2  - actually totaling less WAR (14.1) than Bradley in the same amount of time. Obviously, these are not 100% accurate, but they are pretty good estimates, and I’m sure the Red Sox would be thrilled to have Bradley produce more than Ellsbury for a tiny fraction of the cost. Now, of course, these projection systems aren’t always accurate, but when they generally agree on something they’re worth looking at to get a sense of what the player will most likely produce in the future. They’ve been proven to be fairly accurate, too.

But what do projection systems tell us will happen in 2014? Right now for the Red Sox, the focus is on the upcoming year, since they just won the World Series and are by no means building solely for the future – they want to defend their title, and how these two players will compare five years down the road has no bearing on this year. Well, projection systems agree that Ellsbury will have a better 2014 year than Bradley will – the projections on Bradley range from 2-3 WAR (and 1.5 from ZiPS), while Ellsbury’s range is 3-4. But the Red Sox are probably OK with that, seeing as Ellsbury will make 40 times more than Bradley will.

Overall, not re-signing Ellsbury will probably look like a wise move in the long run for the Red Sox. While Bradley doesn’t have Ellsbury’s game-changing speed or power potential, he will likely be a solid centerfielder for the next six years for the defending champs, with decent hitting and standout fielding. The loss of Ellsbury hurts, especially since he went to a division rival, but it isn’t anything the Red Sox can’t overcome.